On February 1, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced he would impose a 25% tariff on Canadian exports and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy entering the U.S. on March 4, 2025. Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, immediately announced retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. Throughout the year the two countries went back and forth, imposing some tariffs and pulling back others.
As a result, affected companies built up inventory to avoid tariff price increases. Yet as those inventories wane, consumers in those industries may be faced with higher prices, thereby reducing demand. Based on INRIX truck data, we estimate a moderate, 4-6% retraction in goods crossing the Canadian border versus 2024.
Tracking this behavior is key to understanding the impact of U.S. trade policy with its neighbors. Analyzing truck data is one way to look at how tariff impacts (and other policies) businesses. If demand drops, we expect to see fewer goods and services crossing the border.
Traditional data collection includes waiting for truck crossing counts from the Border Patrol. These lagging indicators often give valuable insights into border activity. But during the historically-long 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown, this data wasn't being produced and updated in the timely manner, leaving many analysts looking for alternatives.
That's where INRIX comes in. Our data sources only have minimal processing time and don't rely on government data collection, allowing clients quick access to the most timely insights in trucking available.
