Since COVID-19, many downtowns and employment hubs continue to suffer from a lack of activity. Many employers, who once hosted hundreds to thousands of people in an office building during the day, allowed employees to continue remote work via fully remote work or a hybrid combination. This initially contributed to reduced commute delays in both peak commute periods, as travel to and from work represented 29% of a household’s total vehicle miles traveled. While employer remote and hybrid policies helped alleviate the burden congestion places on travelers, office vacancies remained high, restaurant tables unfilled, and tax revenues based on downtown activity fell.
In short, employer-employee policies can have a significant impact on congestion.
It’s no surprise, then, that business leaders and small businesses in Seattle hailed Amazon’s recent announcement for a full, five-days-in-office workweek starting in 2025, as a “home run.” They likely hope that more people downtown will increase foot traffic to local businesses and revitalize nightlife and the arts. Yet the updated policy is not without its detractors, as 9 out of 10 employees appear to be upset by the announcement, placing the policy in jeopardy.
While the policy’s future remains uncertain, INRIX provides insight as to what commuters may expect in the Seattle Region as the “Amazon Effect” goes into place.
Amazon’s First Return to Office (RTO) led to 35% slower traffic on some routes.
In April 2023, Amazon announced their first RTO effort to get people to badge in three days per week, to begin the following month. Other companies in the area quickly followed suit, adding cars to the roadway.
Last year we analyzed how this affected traffic before and after the policy started.
Average weekday traffic speeds generally fell on most routes. Speed drops were most prominent in East-West travel across I-90 and SR 520, but still reached double digits on I-405 and I-5. This is likely due to the prominence of the Eastside in terms of telecommuting. One trend INRIX noted early on in COVID re-emergence (e.g. trip taking/activity) was the relatively quick bounce back of activity in Tacoma and Everett.
It’s likely that speeds will fall, but will mostly affect Monday and Friday, the lightest travel days.
Amazon’s new RTO plan is to go into effect in January 2025. Looking at past January speeds by day, Monday and Friday are the lightest morning-commute days. State Route 520 has the largest discrepancy in travel speeds depending on the day. Monday morning travel on SR-520 is 73% faster than on Wednesdays, and Friday morning speeds are more than double Wednesday’s.
On the return trip, Monday evenings move a bit more freely than on Friday, and will likely see the largest speed drops. Currently, I-90 Eastbound to Eastgate has the largest discrepancy. Travel on Monday evenings is 56% faster than on Wednesday evenings, while Friday travel is 33% faster than Wednesday.
Conclusion
Seattle’s case is not unlike many cities and Central Business Districts around the globe. Employers looking to bring people back into the office will increase VMT, place strain on parking, and ultimately, reduce commuting travel speeds. As speeds slow down, drivers sit in traffic jams, losing time, money and fuel to congestion.
Seattle already ranks 10th in the United States for traffic delay and saw a big, 12-hour jump in 2023. Yet the region still sits 11% below pre-COVID delay, indicating that there is room for congestion to continue to mount.
While Amazon’s full-week return to office policy has yet to be implemented, it will have, along with other employers likely joining, a significant impact on travel, most notably on Mondays and Fridays – days that were only marginally affected by the original RTO plan in May 2023.
INRIX will continue to provide insights on downtown/city center movement, curb activity, roadway conditions, micromobility use, and safety.