In 2017, INRIX helped found the ACES Northwest Network, to bring together public and private sector leaders to help advance the future of transportation. The vision was bold—Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared (ACES) vehicles had the power to collectively redefine how people and goods move. We believed that these four technologies together could create transportation systems that are safer, more efficient, and more sustainable than anything that came before.
Fast forward to 2025, and progress has been significant—but not without setbacks. While some aspects of ACES have gained widespread adoption, others are still climbing the innovation curve. In this blog, we’ll examine where ACES stands today, the challenges it faces, and what the future might hold.
Technological Innovation and the S-Curve:
Where Are We Today?
New technologies rarely see immediate, widespread adoption. Instead, they typically follow an S-curve development pattern, starting as a concept before going through development, testing, regulatory approval, and commercial release. After early adoption, they enter a phase of rapid expansion, eventually reaching market saturation, followed by maturity and potential decline.
ACES technologies—Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared vehicles—are progressing at different rates along this curve.
- Autonomous vehicles remain in the testing and approval phase, with some early commercial deployments.
- Connected vehicles have reached the market diffusion stage, as connectivity is now standard in most new vehicles.
- Electric vehicles are in the expansion phase, with strong adoption driven by policy support and economic shifts.
- Shared mobility is in the maturation phase, as services like ride-hailing and car-sharing adjust to post-pandemic consumer behavior.
While each of these technologies is evolving, mass adoption remains a challenge, requiring continued advancements in infrastructure, regulation, and consumer acceptance.
Autonomous Vehicles:
A Long Road Ahead
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) were expected to be commonplace by now, but real-world challenges have slowed their adoption. Today, the AV industry is at a crossroads—while Waymo is successfully operating driverless taxis in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix, mass adoption remains elusive. Some parents in Arizona even trust Waymo enough to send their kids to school in driverless taxis.
Yet, AVs have faced serious hurdles. Robotaxi company Cruise, a major player in the space, shut down operations after a 2023 pedestrian collision incident led to regulatory scrutiny. Other concerns include:
- Regulatory Barriers: AV companies face a complex patchwork of state and federal regulations that slow expansion.
- Cost Challenges: The technology remains expensive, limiting deployment at scale.
- Technological Limitations: AVs struggle in adverse weather conditions and complex urban environments.
Despite these challenges, optimism remains. Tesla has announced plans to launch a sub-$30,000 “robotaxi” by 2027, while regulatory agencies are working on frameworks to support AV deployments. But achieving mass adoption could take another two to three decades, making full autonomy a long-term goal rather than an imminent reality.
Connected Vehicles:
The Quiet Success Story
While autonomous vehicles remain a work in progress, connected vehicle (CV) technology has become the industry standard. Today, nearly 75% of all new vehicles come with built-in connectivity, enabling real-time traffic data, predictive maintenance, and advanced safety features.
The global connected car market is growing rapidly, driven by:
- Consumer demand for real-time navigation and infotainment systems.
- Regulatory mandates, such as Europe’s eCall system, which requires all new vehicles to be equipped with emergency connectivity (European Commission).
- Advancements in AI and 5G technology, which are improving vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication.
By 2030, 95% of new vehicles are expected to be connected, marking one of the most successful deployments of ACES technologies. However, as connectivity increases, so do concerns about cybersecurity and data privacy—issues that will need to be addressed as the industry evolves.
Electric Vehicles:
A Market on Fire (But Facing New Challenges)
No segment of ACES has grown as quickly as electric vehicles (EVs). In the early 2010s, EVs accounted for less than 1% of global new car sales. Today, that number is 18%, with projections suggesting that EVs could make up 50% of all new vehicle sales by 2030 (BloombergNEF).
The surge in EV adoption is driven by:
- Government incentives and regulations encouraging EV production and sales (International Energy Agency).
- Falling battery prices, expected to drop by 50% by 2030, making EVs more affordable (BNEF).
- Global competition, particularly from China, which is leading the race in EV manufacturing.
Despite this momentum, EV adoption is hitting some bumps in the road:
- Charging Infrastructure Gaps: Expanding public charging networks remains a challenge, especially in rural areas (IEA).
- Supply Chain Constraints: Lithium and other battery materials are facing shortages.
- Changing Government Priorities: With a shift in the political landscape in the U.S, focus may shift away from EV incentives, potentially slowing adoption in the U.S.
Still, EVs have moved beyond niche status and are now firmly in the mainstream. The question is no longer if EVs will dominate, but when.
Shared Mobility:
Adapting to a Post-Pandemic World
Shared mobility—everything from ride-hailing and car-sharing to micromobility (e-bikes and scooters)—has become a fundamental part of urban transportation. However, the industry is still adapting to new consumer behaviors and economic realities.
Where We Are Today
- Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are seeing steady demand but are facing profitability challenges.
- Car-sharing services like Zipcar and Turo have grown as people seek alternatives to car ownership.
- Micromobility options (e-scooters and bikes) have rebounded after a post-pandemic decline and are now considered a critical part of urban mobility.
- The “super app” model (integrating multiple transport modes) is gaining traction in global markets, with companies like Uber and Bolt offering ride-hailing, bike rentals, and public transit options within a single app.
Challenges in Shared Mobility
Despite its potential, shared mobility faces key hurdles:
- Profitability Remains a Concern: Many services operate on thin margins, with some struggling to maintain long-term financial stability.
- Regulatory and Labor Issues: The gig economy workforce remains a hot topic, with new regulations on driver pay and working conditions impacting the cost of services (The Guardian).
- Post-Pandemic Consumer Preferences Are Shifting: More consumers prefer private over shared rides, leading companies to adjust business models.
- Electrification of Fleets: Many cities are introducing regulations requiring ride-hailing companies to switch to EVs, creating logistical and cost challenges (Bloomberg).
Despite these challenges, shared mobility is expected to grow significantly. By 2030, shared mobility services are projected to more than double their market share, as urbanization, sustainability goals, and the high cost of car ownership drive demand (McKinsey).
Public-private partnerships are also playing a growing role. Cities are increasingly integrating shared mobility services with public transit, making them a seamless part of the urban transportation network.
As technology advances and business models evolve, shared mobility will continue to be a key component of the ACES future, helping cities reduce congestion and carbon emissions while offering more convenient transportation options.
The Future of ACES:
Policy, Technology, and the Road Ahead
The transportation landscape is evolving rapidly, but how quickly ACES technologies advance will depend on policy, technological breakthroughs, and consumer behavior.
One major wildcard is the shifting political landscape in the U.S., which could impact transportation policy in several ways:
EV incentives and emissions regulations may be scaled back, potentially slowing EV adoption in the U.S. (Reuters).
- Infrastructure funding for charging stations and smart roads could be deprioritized.
- AV regulation may shift to a more hands-off approach, encouraging innovation but raising safety concerns.
Regardless of political shifts, the global momentum behind ACES is undeniable. Automakers, tech companies, and governments worldwide are investing billions into these technologies, ensuring continued progress.
Conclusion
The vision of ACES that INRIX outlined in is still unfolding. While connected vehicles and electric vehicles have seen rapid adoption, autonomous vehicles and shared mobility are facing more complex challenges.
As history has shown, new transportation technologies take decades to reach mass adoption. ACES is no different—but one thing is clear: the transportation revolution is well underway, and there’s no turning back.
At INRIX, we’ll continue to track the progress of ACES, providing the data and insights needed to navigate the road ahead. Stay tuned for more updates on how these technologies are shaping the future of mobility.