London – December 14, 2016 – Journeys on some major routes could take almost four times as long this Christmas period compared to other times of the year, according to data from INRIX, the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics.
Based on an analysis of traffic levels from the last time Christmas Day fell on a Sunday, in 2011, the busiest days on UK roads are expected to be Friday 16th and Tuesday 20th December.
Friday 16th December will see the worst delays, which will peak at around 4pm, as Christmas traffic combines with the usual Friday evening peak period. With drivers leaving work early or travelling to spend the festive period with relatives, journey times could take as much as four times longer on Friday afternoon. A planned strike on the Southern network on 16th December may also lead to higher numbers of vehicles taking to the roads in the south of England.
The worst affected roads this Friday will be major motorways. Drivers on a 32-mile section of the M25 (both ways) should expect delays of up to 2 hours and 20 minutes, extending a journey that typically takes 35 minutes to nearly three hours, with the average speed falling to 11 miles per hour.
Outside of the M25, drivers heading westbound on the A4 and southbound on the M5 towards the West Country should be prepared for delays of up to 1 hour and 25 minutes. Delays of 1 hours and 20 minutes are also expected on the M6 between Stoke and Warrington. Travellers are advised to find alternative routes for journeys on major roads, as the shortest routes will not always be the fastest.
Table 1: Friday 16th December – UK’s most delayed routes, average journey times and suggested alternative routes
| Route | Dist (miles) | Av. Speed (mph) | Travel Time | Normal | Delay | Worst Time | Alternative Route |
| M25 both ways J7 (Reigate) to J16 (M40) | 32 | 11 | 2h 55m | 35 min | 2h 20m | 4:00-5:30PM | A217/A240/A308 between Reigate/Staines or A205/A406 N/S Circ Rds |
| A4 Westbound (Earl’s Court) to M4 J11 (Reading) | 37 | 17 | 2h 10m | 45 min | 1h 25m | 4:00-5:30PM | A316/M3/A322/A329M between Richmond and Reading |
| M5 Southbound J14 (Thornbury) to J21 (Weston-s-Mare) | 29 | 15 | 1h 55m | 30 min | 1h 25m | 3:30-5:00PM | A38 Whitminster to Almondsbury/M4/M4; A4/A370 South of Bristol |
| M6 b/ways J16 (Stoke N) to J22 (Warrington) | 30 | 16 | 1h 50m | 30 min | 1h 20m | 3:30-5:30PM | A49 Hereford to Warrington or A50/A500/A34 Leicester to Manchester |
| M60 both ways J8 (Carrington) to M62 J20 (Rochdale) | 17 | 15 | 1h 10m | 20 min | 0h 50m | 3:30-5:00PM | M60 J8 to J21 via Stockport/Ashton-u-Lyne/A627M to Rochdale |
| M4 b/ways J24 (Coldra) to J32 (Coryton) | 20 | 18 | 1h 05m | 20 min | 0h 45m | 3:30-5:00PM | A4232 S of Cardiff/A48 via Newport |
| M25 Anti-clockwise J4 (Orpington) to Dartford Crossing | 10 | 12 | 0h 50m | 15 min | 0h 35m | 4:00-5:30PM | A2/A102/A12 via Blackwall Tunnel |
| M3 Southbound J2 (M25) to J8 (A303) | 36 | 33 | 1h 05m | 35 min | 0h 30m | 4:30-6:00PM | A3/A31 Kingston-upon-Thames to Winchester |
| M5 b/ways J4 (Bromsgrove) to J7 (Worcester) | 16 | 18 | 0h 50m | 20 min | 0h 30m | 3:00-5:00PM | A38 between Bromsgrove and Worcester |
| M25 Clockwise J27 (M11) to Dartford Crossing | 18 | 27 | 0h 40m | 20 min | 0h 20m | 4:00-5:30PM | A12/A102/A2 via Blackwall Tunnel |
| M74 Southbound J1/M8 and J5 (Raith) | 22 | 33 | 0h 40m | 25 min | 0h 15m | 1:00-3:00PM | M8/A8/A73/A71 via Newhouse/Newmains |
| M1 Northbound J17 (Watford Gap) to J23a (E Mids Airport) | 38 | 42 | 0h 55m | 40 min | 0h 15m | 3:00-5:00PM | A6 Kettering to Loughborough or use M40/M42/A42 from London |
Tuesday 20th December is expected to see the second longest delays on UK roads around the festive season. It is anticipated that it will be the favoured day for people working into the final week before Christmas to hit the roads. A strike on the Southern rail networks is also planned for 20th December.
Delays are predicted to peak between 12.30pm-1pm and then again at 4pm. The same 32-mile stretch of the M25 will see delays of up to 1 hour 10 minutes. Elsewhere, delays of approximately 55 minutes are expected on the A4, and 45 minutes on the M5 and M6. Congestion on the M60 will delay drivers by around 30 minutes, and travelers heading to Wales will face similar delays on the M4.
Greg Hallsworth, UK traffic analyst at INRIX, said: “Our data shows that Friday 16th December will be the busiest period on the roads this Christmas. There will be significant disruptions on the road due to the regular post-work peak, the start of the school holidays and people heading home for Christmas, as well as the number of delivery vehicles making their drop offs as ecommerce in the UK reaches a record high[i].
“Drivers taking to the roads this Christmas would be well advised to take alternative routes or avoid driving during peak times altogether. By checking live traffic data, and keeping an eye on weather conditions, drivers can ensure they reach their destinations safely and in good time,” advises Hallsworth.
Table 2: Tuesday 20th December – UK’s most delayed routes, average journey times and suggested alternative routes
| Route | Dist (miles) | Av. Speed (mph) | Travel Time | Normal | Delay | Worst Time | Alternative Route |
| M25 both ways J7 (Reigate) to J16 (M40) | 32 | 18 | 1h 45m | 35 min | 1h 10m | 4:30-6:00PM | A217/A240/A308 between Reigate/Staines or A205/A406 N/S Circ Rds |
| A4 Westbound (Earl’s Court) to M4 J11 (Reading) | 37 | 22 | 1h 40m | 45 min | 0h 55m | 1:30-3:00PM | A316/M3/A322/A329M between Richmond and Reading |
| M5 Southbound J14 (Thornbury) to J21 (Weston-s-Mare) | 29 | 23 | 1h 15m | 30 min | 0h 45m | 3:30-5:30PM | A38 Whitminster to Almondsbury/M4/M4; A4/A370 South of Bristol |
| M6 b/ways J16 (Stoke N) to J22 (Warrington) | 30 | 25 | 1h 15m | 30 min | 0h 45m | 4:00-6:00PM | A49 Hereford to Warrington or A50/A500/A34 Leicester to Manchester |
| M60 both ways J8 (Carrington) to M62 J20 (Rochdale) | 17 | 19 | 0h 55m | 25 min | 0h 30m | 4:00-6:00PM | M60 J8 to J21 via Stockport/Ashton-u-Lyne/A627M to Rochdale |
| M4 b/ways J24 (Coldra) to J32 (Coryton) | 20 | 24 | 0h 50m | 20 min | 0h 30m | 12:30-2:00PM | A4232 S of Cardiff/A48 via Newport |
| M3 Southbound J2 (M25) to J8 (A303) | 36 | 35 | 1h 00m | 35 min | 0h 25m | 4:30-6:00PM | A3/A31 Kingston-upon-Thames to Winchester |
| M25 Clockwise J27 (M11) to Dartford Crossing | 18 | 23 | 0h 45m | 20 min | 0h 25m | 1:00-3:30PM | A12/A102/A2 via Blackwall Tunnel |
| M5 b/ways J4 (Bromsgrove) to J7 (Worcester) | 16 | 29 | 0h 35m | 20 min | 0h 15m | 4:00-6:00PM | A38 between Bromsgrove and Worcester |
| M74 Southbound J1/M8 and J5 (Raith) | 22 | 33 | 0h 40m | 25 min | 0h 15m | 4:30-6:00PM | M8/A8/A73/A71 via Newhouse/Newmains |
| M25 Anti-clockwise J4 (Orpington) to Dartford Crossing | 10 | 23 | 0h 25m | 15 min | 0h 10m | 4:30-6:00PM | A2/A102/A12 via Blackwall Tunnel |
| M1 Northbound J17 (Watford Gap) to J23a (E Mids Airport) | 38 | 46 | 0h 50m | 40 min | 0h 10m | 4:30-6:00PM | A6 Kettering to Loughborough or use M40/M42/A42 from London |
Highways England has announced that it will complete or lift 448 miles of roadworks between 6am on Friday 23rd December until Tuesday 3rd January, leaving 98 per cent of its 9,534-mile network free of roadworks over the festive period[1].
During this period, Tuesday 27th December has been identified as a day to avoid travel or seek alternative routes, with the volume of cars set to rise again due to high street sales, plus high numbers of people anticipated to be out visiting family and friends or returning home from the Christmas break. National Rail also plans major rail maintenance over the festive period, which will impact services in and out of London, Manchester and Cardiff as well as the Heathrow Express[2], likely leading to more cars taking to roads between Christmas and the New Year.
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[1] eMarketer: “One-Fifth of UK Christmas Season Retail Sales Will Be Digital this Year”
[2] Highways England: 400 miles of roadworks completed in time for Christmas holidays [3] Network Rail: Network Rail encourages passengers to plan journeys early ahead of Christmas upgrade work
